Technical Analysis: Bitcoin weakens while DOGE and DASH provide some bullish respite

Last week our trend continuation bear pennant pattern completed into the take profit zone. Arguably, a long setup could have been considered when closing a short in a support zone and along our immediate trend line support. However, counter-trend trading a bearish weekly engulfing candle has had limited success this year, so our onus should still be on finding a short setup for a possible next leg down to support.

We find values have returned to a range within prices that had previously consolidated in June and recently in August for two weeks. So it’s fair to assume we can expect similar range-bound trading setups. This means shorting $6620 USD to $6650 USD as a 0.382 retrace and prior support-turned-resistance level with stops above the 0.5 Fibonacci level. This is around $6800 . This trade, I’d argue, does require some trade management, as these levels may tend to invite volatile price “jumps” unexpectedly.

So perhaps setting a trailing stop or multiple take profit zones if the trade setup is valid.

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Daily bitcoin short setup 11 Sep 2018 by Pansyfaust on TradingView.com

An immediate trade one could make, if price fails to manage to enter our uppermost short zone, is a second, more aggressive short condition setup. Should we begin to show price weakness and close a daily candle under $6260 USD or closing outside of the bear pennant formation. If that happens, then look for an intra-day setup to short $6260 USD, stop loss $6410 USD and close the short at approximately $6020 USD. This is a highly aggressive short at these levels, so be prudent with your position size to limit risk.

As of yet, no long condition has activated on Bitcoin, since there are no interesting high time frame bullish divergences in price and oscillators. However, some Alt/BTC pairs have shown movement that can invite some attention, namely Dogecoin and DASH.

Looking at DASH/BTC on the long-term weekly time frame, DASH came right into a historically major demand zone, as prior highs through 2014-2017 that were resistance have become support, and as such, we should trade the trend that it’s beginning to suggest.

Not only that, but the weekly RSI dipped into oversold territory and has exited that zone on bullish price action. The question, now, is where can we enter the trend forming? Price has cleanly bounced and is forming a bullish price structure, making higher highs and higher lows while also invalidating a bearish consolidation zone, which seems to have turned into support (Red/Green Rectangle). To enter this trend while lowering your risk, bidding out the 0.382 Fibonacci at 0.0285 with a stop bellow prior lows at 0.025 should yield a favorable R/R. The daily bearish divergence on the RSI gives us a clue that we can expect a pull back, which can be longed.

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Daily trade setup for Dash. 11 Sep 2018 by Pansyfaust on TradingView.com

For those wanting to ride Doge to a new high, it might be prudent to manage those bullish dreams for now. After consolidating between 35 and 40 satoshis for weeks, Doge exploded upwards while the wider market reclined into bearish price movements. However Doge has come into major resistance, and after forming a bearish RSI daily divergence, it might be the signal to exit a portion of your longs you may have or at least short hedge on Poloniex. A good re-long zone would be 64 satoshis as it shares confluence with a 0.618 Fibonacci and a prior resistance-turned-support zone. If the price does decide to consolidate at these current 90-100 satoshi levels, it’s likely it will push to next resistance at 140-145 satoshis.

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DOGE Daily Update 11 Sept by Pansyfaust on TradingView.com

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Charlie Lee on Bitcoin: “It’s always good to buy on the way down”

In a new interview with CNBC, Litecoin founder Charlie Lee has gone to elaborate that Bitcoin remains a good buy for interested investors – noting that the recent market downtrend had created a new investment opportunity for long-term prize-seekers.

Speaking on air, Lee quipped that “It’s always good to buy on the way down to dollar-cost average your buy-in… As long as you don’t spend money that you can’t afford to lose, I think that’s fine.”

Cautioning users against using borrowed funds to invest in Bitcoin, Lee noted that “It’s hard to predict prices. I’ve been in this space for seven years now. I think sometimes it comes back within six months to a year, and sometimes it takes three or four years.”

Lee expressed that Bitcoin’s price movements – and the general price movements of the cryptocurrency market itself – was largely driven by speculation and that, in future, prices would generally reflect the success and adoption of a particular cryptocurrency itself.

Speaking on his own creation – Litecoin – Lee noted that he would not seek to re-invest in the cryptocurrency any time soon.

Earlier this year, Lee publicly sold his Litecoin holdings to avoid any allegations of a conflict of interest – and later expressed his intent to move away from the cryptocurrency entirely in the interest of decentralization.

At the time, Lee explained that “Litecoin is more centralized because I am around, so it has a more centralized development team, has more centralized foundation.”

Speaking to CNBC, Lee expressed the same sentiment – saying “I sold because of conflict of interest, so I’m not going to buy my litecoins back anytime soon — or at all.”

Bitcoin itself is down by -0.70% to trade at $7,009.06 USD, while Litecoin itself is down by -1.67%, and trades at $60.77 USD at press time.

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Square wins new patent for a cryptocurrency payment network

Square – the company headed by Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey – has successfully been awarded a patent by the U.S. Patent & Trademark Office (USPTO) which details a new payment network that would enable merchants to accept payments in any currency – including the likes of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies – and then withdraw their currency of choice following a transaction.

The patent elaborates that:

“The disclosed technology addresses the need in the art for a payment service capable of accepting a greater diversity of currencies…including virtual currencies including cryptocurrencies (bitcoin, ether, etc.)…than a traditional payment system in a transaction between a customer and a merchant, and specifically for a payment service to solve or ameliorate problems germane to transactions with such currencies. Specifically, the payment service described herein can facilitate real-time (or substantially real-time) transactions, allowing a customer to pay in any currency of their choice, while the merchant can receive payment in a currency of their choice.”

The patent describes methods through which a point-of-sale (POS) system could eliminate latency in cryptocurrency transactions to the point that both cryptocurrency and credit card transactions could process at the same speed.

The system would make this claim a possibility through managing a private blockchain that could record transactions from Square wallets. While this approach does not eliminate the potential for double-spend attacks, it does eliminate that risk from a merchant and places the onus on itself, instead.

Square CEO Jack Dorsey has previously gone on record as a Bitcoin supporter – noting that Bitcoin could become the world’s foremost means of exchange within the next ten years.

At the time, Dorsey quipped that Bitcoin’s market emergence will “probably take over ten years”, and went on to say that “The world ultimately will have a single currency, the Internet will have a single currency… I personally believe that it will be Bitcoin.”

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Bitcoin breaks through $7000 USD as cryptocurrency markets resurge

After a month of pressure, cryptocurrency markets appear to have broken a stranglehold invoked by the  US Securities and Exchange Commission’s decision to reject (and later re-evaluate) several Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund proposals.

While the middle of August saw a minor rally, Bitcoin has largely struggled to surpass the $6500 USD mark, while Ethereum has remained deflated below $300 USD.

As of today, Bitcoin has powered through the $7000 USD mark to reach $7,061.28 USD – while Ethereum has flirted with positive gains to touch $293.32 USD at press time.

Leading the charge are several prominent altcoins – Holo has climbed some 27.31% to reach $0.000836 USD, while Bytecoin, MaidSafeCoin, and EOS have climbed by 13.68%, 10.03%, and 9.93% to reach $0.002249 USD, $0.276411 USD, and $5.89 USD, respectively.

A notable return to form is Dash, which has now climbed by 9.44% to reach $194.16 USD.

Among the cryptocurrencies seeing losses, Substratum leads the pack with a -7.34 decline, while Aion and VeChain follow closely by posting losses at -5.53% and -4.67% respectively.

Bitcoin dominance itself presently hovers at around 52.8%, while the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies is presently valued at $230,548,537,071 USD.

As our technical analyst Graeme Tennant noted last week, cryptocurrency markets remained stagnant ahead of what appeared to be imminent volatility – noting a clear reversal signal above Bitcoin’s $5800 USD support zone.

Our sentiment analysis, courtesy of Remy Stephens, noted that while sentiment on Bitcoin itself remained neutral, the altcoin market had taken a bullish term with support rallying for Basic Attention Token, Wanchain, and Bulwark – among other projects.

The US SEC is expected to resume its course and offer a verdict on yet another Bitcoin ETF proposal by the 30th of September. More broadly, US regulators have announced the continuation of ‘Operation Cryptosweep’ – a joint endeavor that has probed some 200 ICOs and cryptocurrency firms.

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Tom Lee’s prediction on Bitcoin’s future: $25,000 USD by the year-end

Tom Lee of Fundstrat has offered more optimism on how he sees the future of Bitcoin’s market.

At the beginning of the month, the Bitcoin analyst claimed that he thinks that Bitcoin is the “best house in a tough neighborhood” and that investors should stay focused on the leading cryptocurrency and his confidence in Bitcoin remains ever stable.

In an interview last week on CNBC’s Trading Nation, Lee declared that he thinks that the financial end of the year will see cryptocurrency “explosively higher,” than it is at present. He suggests this after taking a correlation between Bitcoin and emerging markets.

In January, Lee predicted that Bitcoin would be valued at $25,000 USD by the end of the year and in March, Lee forecast that Bitcoin would be reaching $91,000 USD by the year 2020, and maintained his prediction regarding the end of the year’s mark. A couple of months later, the financial expert announced that he was lowering his prediction for the year-end value to a still remarkable $22,000 USD.

Now, the Fundstrat CEO is claiming that he “still think[s] it’s possible” that the cryptocurrency’s price could swell up to $25,000 USD, taking the relationship between Bitcoin’s price and BlackRock’s iShares MSCI exchange-traded fund (ETF) as a marker on which to base his prediction.

Lee pointed out that there is an “important correlation” in their markets:

Both really essentially peaked early this year, and they both have been in a downward trend… Until emerging markets begin to turn, I think in some ways that correlation is going to hold and tell us that sort of the risk on mentality is those buyers aren’t buying Bitcoin.”

The well-known Bitcoin advocate known for his bullish stance is looking at the market and seeing a shift in favor of cryptocurrency and the Wall Street market. We will know whether or not his predictions come to fruition in a mere four months from now.

Currently, Bitcoin has seen a 0.62% increase in day-on-day trading an is sitting on a $6,750.727 USD valuation.

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Three things you need to know about Bitmain’s IPO

According to industry sources, Bitmain – the giant behind an estimated 80% of all cryptocurrency mining equipment in existence – is mulling a Hong Kong-based Initial Public Offering (IPO).

For the uninitiated, an Initial Public Offering – the first sale of a stock issued by a company to the general public – marks the transition where a ‘private’ company becomes a ‘public’ one.

When a company goes ‘public’, it gains the potential of drawing in thousands of new investors (and subsequently, new capital), and can more easily facilitate acquisitions and mergers through issuing stock. However, this is weighted against regulations which ensure that public firms account to a strict set of legal procedures, form a visible board of directors, and are beholden to financial regulators.

Given Bitmain’s large footprint, the news that the company – under its CEO and co-founder Jihan Wu – could go public has set tongues wagging in numerous circles.

$3 billion USD: The IPO that could be

While no official figures have yet been published by Bitmain nor Wu, early reports indicate that Bitmain could seek to raise as much as $3 billion USD to $18 billion USD through its IPO, and the company might file a listing application with the Hong Kong stock exchange in September this year.

The company is reportedly valued at around $15 billion USD, though no official valuation has yet been given. The company is believed to have brought in $2.5 billion USD in revenue in 2017 through both sales of mining equipment and its involvement with several mining pools.

The company will be set to compete with Canaan Inc – which has similarly filed for a $1 billion USD IPO in Hong Kong – and further with Ebang International Holdings.

Bitmain reportedly unloaded its Bitcoin in favor of Bitcoin Cash

In a leaked dossier that apparently depicts pre-IPO information, Bitmain revealed that it had sold most of its Bitcoin in favor of Bitcoin Cash.

In a purported slide, Bitmain apparently disclosed that it owned some 22,082 BTC in January of 2018 (down from 71,560 BTC in December of 2017) and carried some 1,021,316 BCH (up from 841,866 BCH in the same time period).

Commentators on Twitter have noted that the company may be proceeding with an IPO in an attempt to offset its losses throughout 2018’s ongoing bear market.

Source: Bitcoin Magazine

In a popular thread by Vijay Boyapati, communities debated the allegation that Bitmain had sought to prop up Bitcoin Cash as a company-controlled alternative to Bitcoin, and, as a result, was now forced to obtain other means of funding as the deal soured.

Should Bitmain elect (or be forced to) dispense with its Bitcoin Cash holdings at any stage, the company could ultimately shake cryptocurrency markets by selling as much as 5% of the cryptocurrency – potentially pushing the digital currency into all-time lows.

Bitmain may branch out into other sectors

In more positive news, an IPO might propel Bitmain into new industries.

In an interview with Bloomberg in May, Wu quipped that the next phase of the company would involve “advancing our technology beyond what we’ve already achieved” – and it remains to be seen as to where Bitmain itself might head once public.

The company might square off more closely against Canaan Inc, which itself has committed to developing silicon chipsets applied to both artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency mining.

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Xapo president claims that 90% of cryptocurrencies will disappear

Ted Rogers, the president of Xapo – a Hong Kong-based company dealing with Bitcoin wallets – has claimed that a shocking portion of the cryptocurrencies currently listed will be wiped out.

Rogers believes that 90% of the tokens currently listed on CoinMarketCap are facing “extinction” if they are not the heavyweight cryptocurrency Bitcoin.

Rogers further stated that now, when the market is down, is a good time to invest in more Bitcoin before it starts peaking again.

In response, Erik Voorhees of Shapesift.io, a company which offers global trading in digital assets, suggested that perhaps the market movements have more to do with the “extinction”.

The idea of Bitcoin dominance – whereby Bitcoin holds more than 50% of the cryptocurrency market trading volume –  has been a topic that investors are not shy about. Tom Lee, CEO of Fundstrat, believes that Bitcoin dominance will make a huge improvement in the cryptocurrency space, saying that “Bitcoin is the best house in a tough neighborhood” and suggesting that investors should focus on the original cryptocurrency and ignore other altcoins.

At the time of writing, almost half of the 15 leading cryptocurrencies including Ripple, Cardano, IOTA, TRON, Dash, NEO, and NEM while Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, and Monero have seen 80% or more dips.

Whether Bitcoin will naturally emerge as dominant over falling altcoins will be evident quickly within the market movers and we can only wait to see what will happen.

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Technical Analysis – Buy when there is blood in the streets

After a strong rally peaking at $8500 during the month of July, Bitcoin fell over 30% to a low of $6250 on Tuesday this week. As brutal as this sell-off was for Bitcoin, major altcoins were punished even more severely over the same period.

Approximate return from 24 Jul – 14 Aug for major Alts:

Bitcoin

Ethereum

Bitcoin Cash

XRP

Bitcoin’s relative resilience in this latest crypto market bloodbath has shown without a doubt that Bitcoin is still the boss! Whilst all major alts have broken below their previous low points for the year, the Bitcoin support level at $5825 has held firm. Furthermore, for the first time this year Bitcoin market dominance is back over 50% (i.e. the value of Bitcoin is greater than the value of all the altcoins combined).

Looking forward, it is critical that the support zone (orange area) between $6020 and $5750 holds. If there is a clean break of this level then it is likely that Bitcoin will suffer the same fate as the rest of the altcoins. There is a support trendline (blue line) which may offer some respite on the way down, but on the back up the recovery will likely be halted by the previous support zone (orange area) which will now act as resistance. This is the bearish scenario (red arrows).



Crypto Bloodbath – Buy When There Is blood In The Streets by tennant.graeme on TradingView.com

The bullish scenario (green arrows) would see the price hold above the support zone and form a reversal pattern of some kind. It is possible we may see an inverse head-and-shoulders forming as indicated on the chart. Should it develop further it could signal the beginning of some sort of recovery. I will be waiting for confirmation of either a break below support (bearish scenario) or a reversal pattern above support (bullish scenario) before placing any trades.

Whilst it is tempting to apply the adage “Buy when there is blood in the streets” and load up on Bitcoin and some unloved Alts, I feel it is prudent to wait until there is reason to believe that the bleeding has stopped before jumping back into the market.

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Winklevoss brothers’ Bitcoin ETF rejected, Bitcoin retreats below $8,000 USD

In gloomy news for a cryptocurrency market that was showing new signs of vitality, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has rejected Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss’ proposed Bitcoin ETF for a second time.

The news comes shortly after the SEC elected to delay its verdict on several other proposed Bitcoin ETFs until September this year, and further turned down a proposed rule change from Bats BZX Exchange.

As a result, Bitcoin has retreated below the $8,000 USD mark to trade at $7,900 USD at press time – a damning reversal given the gains the pre-eminent cryptocurrency made earlier this week.

The Winklevoss brothers first proposed a Bitcoin ETF earlier in 2017, where their initial proposal was turned down on March 10th.

While the news does not create a damning indictment on other proposed Bitcoin ETFs, it remains to be seen as to whether another proposal might shift the SEC’s continued stance.

The SEC has previously elaborated that it may one day approve a Bitcoin ETF – noting that “over time, regulated bitcoin-related markets may continue to grow and develop.”

Principally, proposed Bitcoin ETFs have endeavored to track Bitcoin prices offered through Bitcoin Futures contracts – and the SEC has argued that both low Futures volumes and liquidity do not constitute a worthwhile price index.

The Commission made a hopeful submission, however, indicating that “existing or newly created bitcoin futures markets may achieve significant size, and an ETP listing exchange may be able to demonstrate in a proposed rule change that it will be able to address the risk of fraud and manipulation by sharing surveillance information with a regulated market of significant size related to bitcoin, as well as, where appropriate, with the spot markets underlying relevant bitcoin derivatives”.

At press time, Bitcoin is down by -3.77% day-on-day, and presently trades at $7,913.80 USD.

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US SEC delays ruling on Direxion’s five proposed Bitcoin ETFs

In a new statement, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has confirmed that it will delay its ruling on whether five Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (EFT) proposals from Direxion will be accepted or not.

The Commission has now noted that it will use a special extension period to delay its planned verdict until September this year.

The SEC release outlines that NYSE Arca, Inc had submitted a filing for a proposed rule change that would accept the trading and listing of shares of the planned ETFs under ‘NYSE Arca Rule 8.200-E’.

The SEC has indicated that it retains some concerns as to whether the proposed changes would be line with the SEC Act, given that that the rules of a securities exchange must be designed in order to “prevent fraudulent and manipulative acts and practices, to promote just and equitable principles of trade, and to protect investors and the public interest.”

The Commission will accordingly reach its final decision by September 21st, at the latest date.

In a statement, the Commission elaborated that it “finds it appropriate to designate a longer period within which to issue an order approving or disapproving the proposed rule change so that it has sufficient time to consider this proposed rule change. Accordingly, the Commission, pursuant to Section 19(b)(2) of the Act,10 designates September 21, 2018, as the date by which the Commission shall either approve or disapprove the proposed rule change.”

Presently, the five named Bitcoin ETFs as proposed by Direxion are the Direxion Daily Bitcoin Bear 1X Shares, Direxion Daily Bitcoin 1.25X Bull Shares, Direxion Daily Bitcoin 1.5X Bull Shares, Direxion Daily Bitcoin 2X Bull Shares, and Direxion Daily Bitcoin 2X Bear Shares.

Bitcoin has traveled upwards by 0.90% in the past twenty-four hours, and presently trades at $8,216 USD.

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Bitcoin leads the cryptocurrency resurgence, climbs past $8,200 USD

After a difficult hike through the early months of 2018, Bitcoin has summited its first peak on a potential road to recovery, as this morning the pre-eminent cryptocurrency climbed past the $8,200 USD mark.

Having entered the year off the back of a roaring December, Bitcoin traded at $14,112 USD on the 1st of January – all before collapsing to $6194 USD on the 6th of February.

Since then, the wider cryptocurrency sphere has endured its latest bear market – without thousands of altcoins reportedly left to gasp for air.

In news that has left traders, enthusiasts, and developers alike elated, Bitcoin has risen by 3.84 % over the past twenty-four hours, and over the past seven days has risen in value by some 11.78 %.

Bitcoin’s dominance over the wider cryptocurrency market has also resumed, with the pre-eminent cryptocurrency accounting for some 47.3% of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization.

Sentiment behind the pre-eminent cryptocurrency has been bolstered thanks to the news that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission has been said to be evaluating several proposals for a Bitcoin-led Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).

While traders have endured pessimistic markets, several key figures have advocated their belief that Bitcoin’s return to form could just be beginning.

Notably, Fundstrat advisor Tom Lee has issued his prediction that Bitcoin will rise to $22,000 USD by the end of the year, while TenX founder Julian Hosp has iterated that the cryptocurrency could reach values as high as $60,000 instead.

Other voices have noted that while Bitcoin’s price value might attract and benefit speculative traders, evaluating both the adoption of (and transactions handled by) cryptocurrency networks paint a more compelling picture.

Billionaire venture capitalist Tim Draper, for one, has noted his view that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 USD by 2022, and has popularly claimed that “cryptocurrencies will overtake fiat currencies in the next five to seven years”.

While 2018 has been a difficult year for cryptocurrencies thus far, the past seven months have seen a number of important technical advents. Notably, several altcoins have broken away from beta offerings and have gone on to launch their official, proprietary blockchain – with EOS, Tron, Augur, and other projects debuting their official digital asset.

At press time, Bitcoin trades at $8278 USD and is up by 3.84% day-on-day.

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